Polymarket is back on the fritz again, this time with a new clear presidential election winner: Donald Trump by six points.
With $1.5 billion at stake in the election, heads will roll in November.
As we look to 2024, we want to tell you why you should be slightly skeptical of Polymaret and share our favorite bets on the site, including who Satoshi Nakamoto is.
Presidential Election Winner 2024 Polymarket
Last week, Polymarket gave Trump as much as an 8-point lead. Clearly, the market anticipates a devastating Trump victory. Even Zelensky visited Trump because everyone internationally anticipates his victory. Kamala is done for.
That said, watching all this Polymarket hubbub makes us realize that most crypto investors are not professional gamblers (they only know how to gamble on meme coins, by the way —check out membettoken!).
While handicaps, spreads, and lines are initially created by analysts, those odds are adjusted as bets are placed. If one outcome is chosen more by bettors the odds must be adjusted to keep the bet balanced. The upshot is that the House’s goal is to pay the winners with the losers and have a tiny bit left over.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania.
Odds he wins are ahead by 12%. pic.twitter.com/Nn3G5dmTng
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
Of course, money is on the line here so Trump likely is the leading favorite.
Yet you should also keep in mind that Polymarket is heavily marketed toward conservatives. Conservative YouTuber Ben Shapiro has shilled the site for weeks now.
Who can say what this means for accuracy compared to normal polls? But it’s a weird group betting there—not anything like the electorate. I’m not sure if that makes them more or less reliable.
Here’s the good news: the market always pumps after the election, but PolitiFi memes will pump over the next three weeks.
Polymarket Bet #2: Satoshi Nakamoto Reveal
Is Satoshi Alive? Hint: yes.
At least this is according to film director Cullen Hoback, who claims he will confront who he believes to be Satoshi Nakamoto in his HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” premiering today
Polymarket odds are surging trying to predict who they will name:
The film crew will arrive at their suspect, and a scene will culminate in speaking to them. You have to think, if they name someone currently alive, HBO is basically ruining their life because they can never go out in public again without it being mentioned.
This is to say none of this is conclusive and will likely be prefaced with a ‘well, it’s just MY opinion, after all.’ And as long as the person Hoback speaks to denies it, then it’s not conclusive. If the person he spoke to confirmed they were Satoshi, the news would’ve leaked by now.
Our personal prediction is that it’s just going to be the director going up to Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto and him saying “no.” It’s happened countless times at BTC conferences.
Bet #3: NFL Super Bowl Winner 2025
And of course, football! Because even though we’re on the precipice of WW3 and an election that might spark civil war, there’s always the pigskin!
The running favorites are the Kansas City Chiefs to three-peat the Super Bowl.
Some of our favorite picks here to upset that will 10x your return are the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite their 1-4 start, they boast a top-tier quarterback. Also, the Buffalo Bills are on a mission for the Super Bowl, while the LA Rams, though 1-4, are poised for a comeback with their roster soon back to full health.
Still, do you feel as though your gambling itch isn’t satisfied?
Check out MEMEBET token and gamble to your heart’s content.
EXPLORE: Best Way to Diversify Your Portfolio in 2024? BlackRock Says Bitcoin
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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.